People tend to judge the worth of the decision in retrospective [by it's outcome]([[outcome bias]]), but even though good outcome is an evidence of a good decision it does not necessarily stem from good decision. People tend to underestimate prevalence of randomness in life.
The best strategy is the one that has the highest expected value given your current knowledge about the world
There is always uncertainty about how any given decision would play out. This is caused by our lack of knowledge about the world and our inability to predict it. Only Laplace's demon can make a perfect decision.
I find many worlds analysis a powerful way to convey this idea
With the data you have at hand - you should make a decision in such a way that you maximize the proportion of all possible worlds where you achieve your goal.
We don't have control over outcomes but we can make our decisions better
Outcomes make news headlines—indeed, they make the world we live in—so it’s easy to become fixated on them. But processes are what we have control over.